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2024 Predictions and Goal Setting 101
2023 is in the books. I can remember well when 1999 was turning into 2000. It was the turn of a century and the turn of a new millennium. Now here we are in 2024, over two decades later. I love this time of year. I love taking stock of the previous year. What went wrong? What went right? Or maybe just what went better? Where do I need to spend more energy and focus in the year ahead? What can I do to be more consistent and effective? Today we’re going to talk about the value of goals and predictions. Let’s talk first about predictions.
I’ve said many times that predictions are more fun than anything else – on par with trying to guess who is going to win the College Football National Championship before the season begins. Granted, it is sometimes educated guessing, but they are still guesses. One of the educated and experienced guessers I like to follow is Karl Rove. He was a senior advisor and deputy chief of staff to George W. Bush. Each year he puts together a string of predictions for the year ahead and evaluates how he did the year before. For 2023, Rove says he was 63% accurate in his predictions vs. 2022 when he was 74%. Yes, even the educated and dialed in can get things wrong and regress a bit. A few of the major things he got right in 2023 were Ukraine’s progress on the battlefield but weariness in support from the west becoming more evident. He also predicted China would suffer a Covid explosion and that they would not invade Taiwan. He was pretty spot on with sports, predicting that Tom Brady would retire, that Lebron James would become the all-time leading scorer before the All-Star break and that Georgia would win the National Championship. Most notable for me, is he predicted the S&P 500 would be positive for the year when most people didn’t. He got his predictions on former President Trump wrong, predicting he would lose steam in the polls as 2023 progressed. He thought Nancy Pelosi would resign and thought inflation would rise faster than wages.
Well, what does he see in his Crystal Ball for 2024? You can see the entire list in his article in the Wall-Street Journal, but here are a few highlights: The U.S. will allow Ukraine to use F-16’s to make a little more progress on the battlefield. Southern Border crossings are lower by year-end. The Israel-Hamas war continues. The S&P will be up, but by less. He predicts that Donald Trump wins the White House after a decent challenge from Nikki Haley. He predicts the election will be messy again with less than 25,000 votes settling the outcome in four or so states. The House flips democratic while the Senate goes Republican. He also predicts that Texas will win the National Championship – well, he’s already got that one wrong. He also thinks that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will announce they are tying the knot.
Each of you will be making financial decisions in 2024, either for your family or for your business. When we make decisions, we do so while having to make some assumptions about the future. Yet we cannot consistently predict what the future holds. What in the world are we to do? We can’t predict, but we can prepare. Considering a few different scenarios for 2024 may put you in a little better position for whatever might come. So here’s a practical tip on planning for the year ahead – make a base case of assumptions for what you think will happen. Then pretend things go much worse than your assumptions. Where are you vulnerable? Lastly, pretend that things go much better than your base case assumptions. Where would you be leaving money on the table? You don’t know which, if any of these scenarios will pan out – but at least you won’t be caught flat footed, and if you have to pivot based on circumstances, you’ll have some ideas that you’ve already considered. At the end of the day, your base case is your assumptions on which you are probably going to base your financial decisions. Much like Karl Rove, know that you will get some things right, some things wrong, and some things half right. There is some completely unexpected event that no one sees coming that will happen in 2024. That’s what keeps us humble. That’s what reminds us that we’re human. That’s what keeps us from going “all in” on any one particular strategy or decision.
Let’s talk about goals with the rest of our time together. I’m a goal setter. I realize that many people are not. One argument against goal setting I typically hear is, why set a goal at the beginning of the year when you’re not going to follow through with it. Here’s why I think there is value to setting goals: goals can help motivate daily behavior to move you toward a more desirable reality. Let me give you an example from my own life to better explain. In 2014 I ran my first half marathon with a good friend. We trained together, ran the race together, and finished with a pretty decent time. I was 35 at the time. Fast forward to 2022. My 15-year-old son wanted to run a half marathon with me. I reluctantly said yes. We did not train together (because he’s much faster than me), nor did we run the race together. When we got done, both of us were disappointed with our times. So, we decided to set a goal for our times and run again in 2023. Here was my goal, that 44-year-old Chad could beat 35-year-old Chad. I wanted to beat my time from 2014. Now goals are just wishful thinking unless we cultivate behaviors that make those goals more likely. So, I found a training plan online, and for the most part, I stuck to it. It was hard. Getting up at 5:00 in the morning and running in 30-degree weather was not what I wanted to do first thing in the morning. It’s so hard for me to get out of bed in the morning. December 2, 2023 came and by God’s grace both of us met our goals (even if mine was only by 40 seconds). Now I’m not claiming that if you set your goal and work hard, you are going to hit it every time. That’s not the lesson to take away here. But setting a goal for me provided motivation to do what I otherwise wouldn’t do. I really wanted to beat 35-year-old Chad – and my behavior in pursuit of that goal was different than it would be otherwise. Want proof? Since the half-marathon I’ve not gotten up early to run outside even once. I’m not motivated to endure the cold and inconvenience because I don’t currently have a goal that makes it worth it. And quite frankly, I haven’t felt like my days have been as focused and proactive and productive as a result.
Goals can help motivate our daily behavior. And even if we don’t hit our goals, we still positively impact our daily behavior. Even if we don’t hit our goals, we might have inched a little further down the road toward a more desirable reality. So maybe you want to lose 20 pounds; maybe you want to read a book a month; maybe you want to spend less than you make in 2024; or perhaps you want to run your fastest 5k yet. Take time to think about something you would like to do or just improve on in 2024; think about a more desirable reality – then find a way to build activities and routines that will give you a better shot of getting there. As the saying goes, sometimes it is often more about the journey than the destination – but I would add that the destination can help create the journey in the first place.
One of our goals at MBC/Foundation Bank is to be the premier relationship building, service-oriented, forward-thinking financial solutions provider. We love coming alongside our clients in their journey, helping identify financial goals, and helping them create paths to get there. If you are looking for that kind of partnership with your bank, check us out on our website or visit your local branch. If you’ve found this podcast to be a good use of your time, we hope you’ll subscribe to it in your favorite podcast app and share it on social media. Until our next episode, may the Lord bless you and keep you, and happy new year!
-President Chad P. Wilson, CFP
Today’s episode of “Money Matters” was written and recorded by President Chad P. Wilson of McKenzie Banking Company / Foundation Bank on January 2, 2024. This episode does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial professional to discuss your specific needs. Any rates mentioned are subject to change and are accurate as of the recording date. MBC/Foundation Bank is an Equal Housing Lender, Member FDIC.
