We Must Contend with the Wind Whether We Like it or Not

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We Must Contend with the Wind Whether We Like it or Not

I went running yesterday morning. It was 28 degrees, and the wind chill was 22 because of a 10-mph breeze. It was dark when I left the house, bundled up three layers complete with gloves and a toboggan. Coming down one stretch of my three-mile run the wind was in my face. It was cold. It was painful, and it slowed down my pace. But on another stretch, I had the wind at my back. My heart rate went down. My speed increased. Things felt easier. Whether you are a runner or not (some of you might say you’re not a crazy runner after a morning like this) you understand the concept of headwinds and tailwinds. It’s not impossible to move forward in a headwind. It just requires more effort and can sometime slow down your pace. But you can’t ignore it. I may not like the wind, but I have to contend with it one way or another. We’ve got a host of headwinds facing the U.S. economy right now. I’m going to name just a few of them, in the hope that it will make you more aware as you navigate your financial decisions. None of these headwinds mean that a recession is around the bend. It very well could, but that’s far from certain. And as a side note, recessions are awful in the short run, but can actually provide a healthy reset, particularly to price increases in the long run. But even if a recession is not imminent, to ignore these headwinds and to not take them into your decision-making calculations, I think, is unwise. But I will also share one tailwind that may end up offsetting some of these headwind effects. Trucking freight continues to decline. You wouldn’t know it driving down I-40. It seems like there are trucks everywhere. But the amount of stuff they are hauling is less than it was last month, and less than October of 2024. Keep in mind that lots of goods were purchased ahead of tariffs, so we might be coming off elevated levels. Nonetheless, trucking volume is sometimes a leading indicator of economic health. Most truck drivers will tell you that trucking is in a recession. Too many trucks and too few loads. Home Prices in many large metro areas are declining – After a relentless increase in home prices, this might be welcome news, depending on whether you are an existing homeowner or an aspiring one. Newsweek reports that Zillow recently found that 53% of all U.S. homes have seen their valuation from the same time last year drop. Austin TX has seen the greatest drop, with home prices there down an average of 20%. New Orleans, San Francisco, and Pittsburg are the next cities with the most significant move to the downside. If you live in rural West TN, what does this matter? Large metro areas can often be leading indicators for rural areas. Often, what happens in large cities will be making its way to smaller towns – eventually. I’ve already heard that in Jackson Tennessee houses are moving much slower in recent months. Student Loan Delinquencies are getting worse. Earlier in the year, Transunion reported that 31% of student loan borrowers were over 90 days past due on their payments. We don’t have any readily accessible numbers since then, so it’s possible that things have gotten better. But if consumers are being squeezed to pay student loan payments, they didn’t have to worry about the past 5-years, that means they are going to have to cut back in other areas of spending. Job Losses are picking up pace – the most recent ADP report showed an acceleration of layoffs for private companies. Although the net number of jobs appear to be still in the green, that number has gone down in recent months, showing a slowing job market. Additionally, we’ve seen some high profile companies like Amazon, Verizon, Starbucks, and Facebook announce a significant number of layoffs. If you have a good job, you might do well to stay put for the time being. It may be harder to find a good one in the months ahead. So where is the tailwind? AI. I’ve said in previous episodes that AI is as big or bigger than the internet, as big or bigger than smartphones. It is a gamechanger. But it is so early in the AI age that we don’t know exactly how it is going to affect us. The episode on August 12, 2025, Is AI Coming for You or Coming Alongside You will give a fuller explanation of the role of AI in the not-to-distant future. AI is going to make us more productive than we have ever been. There is a massive amount of money being invested in AI infrastructure and AI finance right now. Inevitably, there will be a point where it gets ahead of itself. But it really is a net tailwind economically. Those who are able to adjust their skills to harness AI rather than be replaced by AI will be the winners in the economy in the next two decades. And this does not need to be an all-out embrace – but a selective, thoughtful, strategic harnessing of AI in such a way that the benefits far outweigh the costs. Speaking of thoughtful and strategic decision making, have you given much thought to your bank lately? Is your bank a financial partner that you know is available and will call you back when you need them? Do you know anyone at your bank you can call if you have a question or problem? Do you trust your financial institution? If the answer is no to any of those questions, it might be time to check out Foundation Bank. Start your next financial conversation with us today at foundationbank.org. It really will be worth your time. We hope you’ll subscribe to this podcast to it in your favorite podcast app and share it on social media. Until our next episode, God bless you.

-President Chad P. Wilson, CFP

Today’s episode of “Money Matters” was written and recorded by President Chad P. Wilson of Foundation Bank/McKenzie Banking Company on December 02, 2025. This episode does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial professional to discuss your specific needs. Any rates mentioned are subject to change and are accurate as of the recording date. Foundation Bank/MBC is an Equal Housing Lender, Member FDIC.